环境与耕地约束下的城镇化效率及其发展模式探因

[目的]考虑环境和耕地约束,构建了城镇化效率测算指标体系,测算并分析我国2000~2014年区域城镇化效率,并且从城镇化发展模式与产业结构分布形态2个角度探索区域城镇化效率差异的机理。[方法]以"工业三废"和耕地面积减少量作为非合意产出,构建了由11个指标组成的投入—合意产出—非合意产出指标体系,进而利用优化ISBM模型测算了2000~2014年我国区域城镇化效率,并利用谱系聚类方法分析了其梯队层次特征。[结果]我国各省域城镇化效率总体较低,绝大多数省域处于效率缺损的状态;各省域城镇化效率表现为明显的5个梯队层次,不同区域、不同梯队省域城镇化效率存在明显差异,总体呈现出东、中、西依次递减的格局,并且省域之间城镇化效率差距自2000年以来呈不断缩小的趋势;东部地区城镇化效率较高,总体上城镇化与产业结构之间相互协调,城市群发展程度高而使得城市之间的分工合作程度高;中西部地区城镇化效率相对较低,产业结构对经济的支撑作用相对较弱,城市体系断层明显,城市群带动作用弱。[结论]我国区域城镇化效率总体较低且不平衡,这在很大程度上取决于城镇化模式和演进机制,区域之间的城镇化效率差异体现在产业结构层次、城市集聚方式以及劳动力转移方式等方面。     

辽宁棕壤耕地质量评价及障碍因素类型分区研究

[目的]以土壤类型为基础,选取土壤管理、理化性质、土壤养分、剖面性状、立地条件和气候条件等6个方面14个指标对辽宁棕壤耕地质量进行综合评价,在分析主要障碍因素基础上,根据障碍因素组合类型的不同对辽宁棕壤耕地进行质量障碍因素类型分区。[方法]采用模糊数学法和层次分析法,利用障碍度模型对辽宁棕壤耕地质量障碍因素进行诊断,分析棕壤耕地质量障碍因素类型分区。[结果](1)辽宁棕壤耕地高等地、中等地和低等地,分别占棕壤耕地总面积的21.49%、59.18%和19.33%,耕地质量等级以中等地为主;(2)障碍因素组合类型共14种,根据障碍因素不同划分为3个耕地质量障碍因素类型区,即有机质障碍类型区、灌溉能力障碍类型区、质地障碍类型区,分别占棕壤耕地总面积的86.45%、10.75%和2.80%。[结论](1)针对障碍因素类型分区,提出各区以障碍因素为主的耕地质量保护与提升措施,从而保证粮食生产;(2)文章从耕地土壤类型角度研究耕地质量障碍因素类型分区及其利用策略,为耕地质量保护与提升研究提供新视角,为耕地资源分区利用与管护研究提供参考依据。     

京津冀城市可持续发展效率动态测评及比较研究——基于超效率CCR-DEA模型和Malmquist指数的度量

本文借助超效率 CCR-DEA 模型和 Malmquist 指数，对 2008~2015 年京津冀 13 个城市的可持续发展效率进行了动态测评和对应项分解。研究结果表明：（1）北京与津冀城市的可持续发展效率极为不平衡，北京大幅领先于津冀城市并有逐年扩大的趋势；津冀城市可持续发展效率的差距有逐年缩小的趋势；（2）京津冀城市作为一个整体其可持续发展效率在提高，但各城市可持续发展效率意义上的纯技术效率几乎没有提升；（3）京津冀各城市投入--产出系统虽处于可持续发展效率意义上的规模经济阶段，但不具有持续性。未来京津冀三地应充分利用建设雄安国家新区的战略性历史机遇，统一认识，密切合作，促进京津冀城市经济、社会和资源环境的协调可持续发展。     

技术性贸易壁垒与中国高技术产品出口——基于扩展贸易引力模型的经验分析

本文基于扩展的贸易引力模型，使用2000~2015 年中国同22 个贸易伙伴国的面板数据，并引入和技术性贸易壁垒以及高技术产品密切相关的知识产权保护这一变量，实证考察进口国TBT 对中国高技术产品出口的影响。结果表明：（1）进口国实施 TBT 或进行知识产权保护均会抑制中国高技术产品的出口，但抑制作用并不显著；（2）若进口国将TBT 和知识产权保护相结合形成更为隐蔽的技术性贸易壁垒，将会显著抑制中国高技术产品的出口；（3）中国高技术产品出口呈现行业差异，其中医药制造业受到的抑制效应最大；（4）由于技术模仿和产品同质化现象的存在，中国高技术产品出口会在中高收入国家遭遇更为严重的TBT，对出口的抑制效应会更大。中国应将知识产权保护政策作为应对进口国TBT的一种补充，在保证高技术产品贸易健康发展的同时推动出口产业向中高端发展。     

A Bayesian approach to excess volatility,short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises

In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume the earning shock follows an exponential family distribution to accommodate symmetric as well as asymmetric information. By using this model setting, we develop some properties on the expected earnings shock and its volatility, and establish properties of investor behavior on the stock price and its volatility during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. Thereafter, we develop properties to explain excess volatility, short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and their magnitude effects during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. We also explain why behavioral finance theory could be used to explain many of the asset pricing anomalies, but traditional asset pricing models cannot achieve this aim.     

On the volatility spillover between lslamic and conventional stock markets: A quantile regression analysis

This paper aims at analyzing the degree and structure of interdependencies in terms of volatility (transmission, contagion) between Islamic and conventional stock markets on calm periods and at times of financial fragility and crisis. We focused on the recent financial instability periods and used the Quantile Regression-based GARCH model. Main results lead to very interesting conclusions. First, it has been found that Islamic stock markets are not totally immune to the global financial crisis. Second, a very strong interdependence is sensed from the conventional to the Islamic stock markets, especially, from the conventional developed markets to the Islamic Emerging and Arab markets and to the Islamic developed markets. Finally, it has been proved that the interdependencies from conventional to Islamic markets are propagated between Islamic markets. Our findings suggest that the Islamic finance industry does not seem able to provide cushion against economic and financial shocks that affect conventional markets.     

Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model

This paper evaluates the standard empirical methods employed in the study of foreign aid, when the data generating process is a calibrated stochastic growth model in which aid recipients make optimal investment and consumption decisions. When recipients receive a stochastic flow of aid and wish to smooth consumption, standard methods fail to distinguish between the response to transient and permanent aid shocks, and hence yield misleading results concerning the object of interest to policy makers: the long-run impact of aid.     

The use of open source internet to analysis and predict stock market trading volume

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of information demand and supply on stock market trading volume. Few studies have demonstrated the role of Google search data in analyzing trading volume activity. In this study, we employ a proxy for information demand which is derived from weekly internet search volume. The latest is from Google Trends database, for 25 of the largest stocks traded on CAC40 index, between April 2007 and March 2014. We use news headlines as a proxy for information supply. We use Garch model to analyze and predict trading volume.The empirical results present new evidences. First, information supply has an impact on trading volume but information demand's impact is much more important. Secondly, by applying MCA to results found, it could be concluded that the impact of public information on transaction volume is conditioned by two elements: the firm and market news disclosure and the second element relates to the characteristics of the market participants, more precisely their news interpretations and their risk aversion. Thirdly, we used Chow structural break test to verify the stability of our model. We found that for securities with structural changes, information demand is the responsible variable of the change in our model. Finally, we found that information variables have a predictive power on transaction volume.This paper contributes to existing literature by incorporating open source internet-based data into the analysis and prediction of transaction volume. Using internet information about the stock market, which has appeared recently as an interesting research for financial empiricists, computer scientists and practitioners, will have a very important utility because quantifying demand and supply of information becomes possible.     

Methods for Scalar‐on‐Function Regression

Recent years have seen an explosion of activity in the field of functional data analysis (FDA), in which curves, spectra, images and so on are considered as basic functional data units. A central problem in FDA is how to fit regression models with scalar responses and functional data points as predictors. We review some of the main approaches to this problem, categorising the basic model types as linear, non‐linear and non‐parametric. We discuss publicly available software packages and illustrate some of the procedures by application to a functional magnetic resonance imaging data set.     

A case study: The impact of low-cost carriers on inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia

This study investigates the impact of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on Saudi Arabia's tourism demand. It also provides an understanding of the relationship between air transport development and tourism development in the Gulf region. The Box–Jenkins SARIMA-X models were employed to model and forecast international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia, using monthly international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia from July 2010 to December 2015. The forecasting models were significantly accurate, with lower values of MAPE, MAP, and RMSE. The findings suggest that an increase in airline capacity, religious travel, and airline competition are associated with the increasing international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia. This also indicates that there is a positive relationship between air transport development and tourism development. Further aviation liberalisation in the Gulf region is discussed to give opportunities for the region's LCCs to increase their share of the increasing air travel demand, thereby enhancing tourism development.